What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging
Title (eng)
What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging
Author
Sandra J. Geiger
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Daniel C. Mann
Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria
Sari R. R. Nijssen
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Radisti A. Praptiwi
Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia
Gargi Ranade
The Shallow End Collective, Bangalore, India
Valeria Vitale
Department of Psychology of Developmental and Socialization Processes, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
Małgorzata Winkowska
Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Sweden
Lei Zhang
Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom
Jana K. Köhler
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Abstract (eng)
Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated (pluralistic ignorance). Across two studies using primary data (n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary data (ns = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries), we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate-change beliefs, (b) the effects of a public-consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) the possibility that cultural tightness-looseness might serve as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of proclimate views by at least 7.5% in Indonesia (90% credible interval, or CrI = [5.0, 10.1]), and up to 20.8% in Brazil (90% CrI = [18.2, 23.4]. Providing information about the actual public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one’s proclimate opinion, δ = 0.05 (90% CrI = [−0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic-ignorance research in these countries.
Keywords (eng)
Climate ChangePluralistic IgnoranceSocial NormCultural Tightness-loosenessCross-country Generalizability
Type (eng)
Language
[deu]
Persistent identifier
Is in series
Title (eng)
Psychological Science
Volume
36
Issue
6
ISSN
0956-7976
Issued
2025
Number of pages
22
From page
421
To page
442
Publication
SAGE
Version type (eng)
Date issued
2025
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Rights statement (eng)
© The Author(s) 2025.
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https://phaidra.vetmeduni.ac.at/o:4870 - Other links and identifiers
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- RightsLicenseRights statement© The Author(s) 2025.
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