What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging

Title (eng)
What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging
Author
Sandra J. Geiger
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Author
Karla A. Garduño-Realivazquez
Department of Accounting, University of Sonora, Mexico
Author
Christian A. P. Haugestad
Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway
Author
Hirotaka Imada
Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology, Japan
Author
Aishwarya Iyer
Department of Psychology, Christ University, India
Author
Carya Maharja
Yayasan Puspa Hanuman Indonesia, Indonesia
Author
Daniel C. Mann
Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria
Author
Michalina Marczak
School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
Author
Olivia Melville
Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Canada
Author
Sari R. R. Nijssen
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Author
Nattavudh Powdthavee
Department of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Author
Radisti A. Praptiwi
Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia
Author
Gargi Ranade
The Shallow End Collective, Bangalore, India
Author
Claudio D. Rosa
Development and Environment, State University of Santa Cruz, Brazil
Author
Valeria Vitale
Department of Psychology of Developmental and Socialization Processes, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
Author
Małgorzata Winkowska
Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Sweden
Author
Lei Zhang
Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom
Author
Mathew P. White
Cognitive Science Hub, University of Vienna, Austria
Author
Jana K. Köhler
Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
Author
Zenith N. C. Delabrida
Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Brazil
Abstract (eng)
Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated (pluralistic ignorance). Across two studies using primary data (n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary data (ns = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries), we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate-change beliefs, (b) the effects of a public-consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) the possibility that cultural tightness-looseness might serve as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of proclimate views by at least 7.5% in Indonesia (90% credible interval, or CrI = [5.0, 10.1]), and up to 20.8% in Brazil (90% CrI = [18.2, 23.4]. Providing information about the actual public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one’s proclimate opinion, δ = 0.05 (90% CrI = [−0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic-ignorance research in these countries.
Keywords (eng)
Climate ChangePluralistic IgnoranceSocial NormCultural Tightness-loosenessCross-country Generalizability
Type (eng)
Language
[deu]
Is in series
Title (eng)
Psychological Science
Volume
36
Issue
6
ISSN
0956-7976
Issued
2025
Number of pages
22
From page
421
To page
442
Publication
SAGE
Date issued
2025
Access rights (eng)
Rights statement (eng)
© The Author(s) 2025.