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Using daily Austrian pig movement records from 2021, we modeled the introduction of an infectious disease. Within-holding infection dynamics were simulated with a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) with ASF-like parameters; between-holding transmission occurred via direct trade and indirect local spread within 5-km radius. Across simulations, the epidemic affected 0.2% of pigs and 2% of holdings, reaching 10% of municipalities. Most holding-to-holding transmission was short-distance (54.9% intra-municipal; inter-municipal transmission averaged 7.8 km), but rare long-distance events (mean 5.6 events per simulation; >2 SD above mean trade distance) facilitated large-scale outbreaks. Early-stage projections predicted final size and progression more precisely than later forecasts, supporting timely targeted interventions. Static networks overestimated affected municipalities by 8.9-fold. The first 40 days were critical for epidemic control when introduction occurred in a low-trade period (January), shrinking to 20 days during high-trade periods (April)."}]}],"bf:provisionActivity":[{"@type":"bf:Publication","bf:agent":[{"@type":"schema:Organization","schema:name":[{"@value":"Elsevier"}]}]}],"dce:rights":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"© 2026 The Author(s)"}],"dce:subject":[{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Animal Health Management"}]},{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Animal Science"}]},{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Food Animal Veterinary Medicine"}]},{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Porcine Epidemiology"}]}],"dce:title":[{"@type":"bf:Title","bf:mainTitle":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Risk of exotic disease introduction and propagation in the Austrian swine trade network"}]}],"dcterms:accessRights":[{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/pid.phaidra.org\/vocabulary\/QW5R-NG4J"],"skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"open access"},{"@language":"ita","@value":"Open Access"}]}],"dcterms:issued":["2026"],"dcterms:language":["eng"],"dcterms:type":[{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/pid.phaidra.org\/vocabulary\/69ZZ-2KGX"],"skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"Text"},{"@language":"deu","@value":"Text"},{"@language":"ita","@value":"Documento PDF"}]}],"ebucore:filename":["1-s2.0-S2589004226002439-main.pdf"],"ebucore:hasMimeType":["application\/pdf"],"edm:hasType":[{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/pid.phaidra.org\/vocabulary\/VKA6-9XTY"],"skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"journal article"},{"@language":"deu","@value":"Wissenschaftlicher Artikel"},{"@language":"ita","@value":"Articolo scientifico"}]}],"edm:rights":["http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"],"oaire:version":[{"@type":"skos:Concept","skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/pid.phaidra.org\/vocabulary\/PMR8-3C8D"],"skos:prefLabel":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"version of record (published version)"},{"@language":"ita","@value":"Versione editoriale\/Version of Record"}]}],"rdam:P30004":[{"@type":"ids:doi","@value":"10.1016\/j.isci.2026.114868"}],"rdau:P60193":[{"@type":"schema:CreativeWork","bibo:issue":[{"@value":"3"}],"bibo:volume":[{"@value":"29"}],"dce:title":[{"@type":"bf:Title","bf:mainTitle":[{"@language":"eng","@value":"iScience"}]}],"dcterms:issued":["2026"],"ids:issn":["2589-0042"]}],"role:aut":[{"@type":"schema:Person","schema:affiliation":[{"@type":"schema:Organization","schema:name":[{"@value":"University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna"}],"skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/ror.org\/01w6qp003"]}],"schema:familyName":[{"@value":"Puspitarani"}],"schema:givenName":[{"@value":"Gavrila Amadea"}],"skos:exactMatch":[{"@type":"ids:orcid","@value":"0000-0002-8826-5606"}]},{"@type":"schema:Person","schema:familyName":[{"@value":"Schuster"}],"schema:givenName":[{"@value":"Hannah"}]},{"@type":"schema:Person","schema:familyName":[{"@value":"Colman"}],"schema:givenName":[{"@value":"Ewan"}]},{"@type":"schema:Person","schema:affiliation":[{"@type":"schema:Organization","schema:name":[{"@value":"University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna"}],"skos:exactMatch":["https:\/\/ror.org\/01w6qp003"]}],"schema:familyName":[{"@value":"Desvars-Larrive"}],"schema:givenName":[{"@value":"Amélie"}],"skos:exactMatch":[{"@type":"ids:orcid","@value":"0000-0001-7671-696X"}]}],"schema:numberOfPages":["20"]}