https://phaidra.vetmeduni.ac.at/o:4738 Same data, different analysts: variation in effect sizes due to analytical decisions in ecology and evolutionary biology Gould, Elliot Elliot Gould Nakagawa, Shinichi Shinichi Nakagawa 0000-0002-7765-5182 Griffith, Simon C. Simon C. Griffith 0000-0001-7612-4999 Vesk, Peter A. Peter A. Vesk 0000-0003-2008-7062 Fidler, Fiona Fiona Fidler 0000-0002-2700-2562 Hamilton, Daniel G. Daniel G. Hamilton 0000-0001-8104-474X Abbey-Lee, Robin N. Robin N. Abbey-Lee 0000-0002-8743-2089 Abbott, Jessica K. Jessica K. Abbott 0000-0001-8104-474X Aguirre, Luis A. Luis A. Aguirre 0000-0001-9796-9755 Alcaraz, Carles Carles Alcaraz 0000-0002-2147-4796 Aloni, Irith Irith Aloni 0000-0002-7777-3365 Altschul, Drew Drew Altschul 0000-0001-7053-4209 Arekar, Kunal Kunal Arekar 0000-0003-1060-5911 Atkins, Jeff W. Jeff W. Atkins 0000-0002-2295-3131 Atkinson, Joe Joe Atkinson 0000-0001-9232-4421 Baker, Christopher M. Christopher M. Baker 0000-0001-9449-3632 Barrett, Meghan Meghan Barrett 0000-0001-9232-4421 Bell, Kristian Kristian Bell 0000-0002-1857-6257 Bello, Suleiman Kehinde Suleiman Kehinde Bello 0000-0001-6718-9256 Beltrán, Iván Iván Beltrán 0000-0003-4439-8391 Berauer, Bernd J. Bernd J. Berauer 0000-0002-9472-1532 Bertram, Michael Grant Michael Grant Bertram 0000-0001-5320-8444 Billman, Peter D. Peter D. Billman 0000-0002-4072-4965 Blake, Charlie K. Charlie K. Blake 0000-0003-4649-3472 Blake, Shannon Shannon Blake 0000-0002-4072-4965 Bliard, Louis Louis Bliard 0000-0002-2349-8513 Bonisoli-Alquati, Andrea Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati 0000-0002-9255-7556 Bonnet, Timothée Timothée Bonnet 0000-0001-7186-5288 Bordes, Camille Nina Marion Camille Nina Marion Bordes 0000-0002-3561-2811 Bose, Aneesh P. H. Aneesh P. H. Bose 0000-0001-5716-0097 Botterill-James, Thomas Thomas Botterill-James 0000-0002-6186-5871 Boyd, Melissa Anna Melissa Anna Boyd 0000-0003-2681-8567 Boyle, Sarah A. Sarah A. Boyle 0000-0001-9498-6787 Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom Tom Bradfer-Lawrence 0000-0001-6045-4360 Bradham, Jennifer Jennifer Bradham 0000-0001-9498-6787 Brand, Jack A. Jack A. Brand 0000-0003-3312-941X Brengdahl, Martin I. Martin I. Brengdahl 0000-0002-1052-7274 Bulla, Martin Martin Bulla 0000-0002-1328-1927 Bussière, Luc Luc Bussière 0000-0001-8937-8381 Camerlenghi, Ettore Ettore Camerlenghi 0000-0002-6203-069X Campbell, Sara E. Sara E. Campbell 0000-0001-7195-8898 Campos, Leonardo L. F. Leonardo L. F. Campos 0000-0002-0186-8552 Caravaggi, Anthony Anthony Caravaggi 0000-0002-1763-8970 Cardoso, Pedro Pedro Cardoso 0000-0001-8119-9960 Carroll, Charles J. W. Charles J. W. Carroll 0000-0002-1763-8970 Catanach, Therese A. Therese A. 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Tompkins 0000-0002-1383-2039 Tortorelli, Claire Marie Claire Marie Tortorelli 0000-0001-9493-9817 Trlica, Andrew Andrew Trlica 0000-0001-7692-323X Turnell, Biz R. Biz R. Turnell 0000-0002-1068-304X Urban, Lara Lara Urban 0000-0002-5445-9314 Van de Vondel, Stijn Stijn Van de Vondel 0000-0002-0223-7330 van der Wal, Jessica Eva Megan Jessica Eva Megan van der Wal 0000-0002-6441-3598 Van Eeckhoven, Jens Jens Van Eeckhoven 0000-0001-8407-4290 van Oordt, Francis Francis van Oordt 0000-0002-8471-235X Vanderwel, K. Michelle K. Michelle Vanderwel 0000-0001-8407-4290 Vanderwel, Mark C. Mark C. Vanderwel 0000-0002-8471-235X Vanderwolf, Karen J. Karen J. Vanderwolf 0000-0003-0963-3093 Vélez, Juliana Juliana Vélez 0000-0003-0412-2761 Vergara-Florez, Diana Carolina Diana Carolina Vergara-Florez 0000-0001-9349-4027 Verrelli, Brian C. Brian C. Verrelli 0000-0002-9670-4920 Vieira, Marcus Vinícius Marcus Vinícius Vieira 0000-0002-4472-5447 Villamil, Nora Nora Villamil 0000-0002-6957-2248 Vitali, Valerio Valerio Vitali 0000-0003-3593-1510 Vollering, Julien Julien Vollering 0000-0002-7409-2898 Walker, Jeffrey Jeffrey Walker 0000-0003-2864-7036 Walker, Xanthe J. Xanthe J. Walker 0000-0002-2448-691X Walter, Jonathan A. Jonathan A. Walter 0000-0003-2983-751X Waryszak, Pawel Pawel Waryszak 0000-0002-4245-3150 Weaver, Ryan J. Ryan J. Weaver 0000-0002-6160-4735 Wedegärtner, Ronja E. M. Ronja E. M. Wedegärtner 0000-0003-4633-755X Weller, Daniel L. Daniel L. Weller 0000-0001-7259-6331 Whelan, Shannon Shannon Whelan 0000-0003-2862-327X White, Rachel Louise Rachel Louise White 0000-0003-0694-7847 Wolfson, David William David William Wolfson 0000-0003-1098-9206 Wood, Andrew Andrew Wood 0000-0001-6863-0824 Yanco, Scott W. Scott W. Yanco 0000-0003-4717-9370 Yen, Jian D. L. Jian D. L. Yen 0000-0001-7964-923X Youngflesh, Casey Casey Youngflesh 0000-0001-6343-3311 Zilio, Giacomo Giacomo Zilio 0000-0002-4448-3118 Zimmer, Cédric Cédric Zimmer 0000-0001-8160-2836 Zimmerman, Gregory Mark Gregory Mark Zimmerman 0000-0002-4448-3118 Zitomer, Rachel A. Rachel A. Zitomer 0000-0002-1888-1817 Parker, Timothy H. Timothy H. Parker 0000-0003-2995-5284 Fraser, Hannah S. Hannah S. Fraser 0000-0003-2443-4463 Springer journal article open access eng Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future. Analytical Heterogeneity Metascience Replication Crisis Reproducibility Many-analyst http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://phaidra.vetmeduni.ac.at/api/object/o:4738/download 10.1186/s12915-024-02101-x https://phaidra.vetmeduni.ac.at/o:605 application/pdf BMC Biology issn:1741-7007 VoR BMC Biology 23 1 2.61 MB 2025